If Rampage is going to stand any chance against Machida he is going to have to fight him like he fough Hedo at 75. He needs to mix up his boxing with takedowns and try to out grapple Machida. If he fights the same way he did against Griffin, Wandy, and Jardine he will get KOed worse then his 3 fights in pride against Wandy and Shogun.
If Shogun is truely back to his pride form he is the only one I think can actually matchup well with Machida and actually beat him besides the slim chance I give Jackson if he fights smart.
I see Machida having 3-4 title defense at LHW against Rampage, Griffin if he beat Anderson, Shogun, or Cane/Vera (I expect one of these 2 to break into the top 5 soon). None of these fighters are a legitimate threat to Machida unless they get lucky (unless Old Shogun is back)/ After he decimated the LHW I think he will move up to HW or down to MW if Silva is gone.