Bob Slay Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 http://www.mmatycoon.info/index.php/Event_advertising Prologue: I was scratching my head trying to figure out how Advertising Spend works from the examples on the help page above. After doing a few hours of reading up other people's attempts at figuring it out I thought "Eureka" I have it sussed, just using the "Summary examples". I didn't go any further than that because I am a lazy sod by nature. However that method didn't have the expected result, so I went back to the help page. And being slightly less lazy on this visit I realised my method doesn't work for many of the "Super sluth examples" (sic) so I had to go back to the drawing board, because clearly I was missing a step somewhere. Did more reading but did not discover anything more, so back to the math and making some comparisons using my old formula. I eventually spotted where the inconsistency was that gave me a clue about the missing piece of information. See most posters had arrived at the conclusion that the Dollars per hype was $15, me among them. And this was based off sound logic if you only looked at the summary examples. e.g. Summary example: 30v30 (x 10 fights) = Advertising spend of $9,000. So like everyone else I looked at that & thought, "easy". Divide the dollars by the hype (10x(30+30)) $9,000/600 = $15 per hype voila! I have it. I built a table & everything: Fight Hype Rank Fight Value in Adv. Units TYPE No.Fights Vs Adv. Units 1 10 MAIN EVENT 1 10 2 5 CO-MAIN EVENT 2 15 3 1 UNDERCARD 3 16 4 1 UNDERCARD 4 17 5 1 UNDERCARD 5 18 6 1 UNDERCARD 6 19 7 1 UNDERCARD 7 20 8 1 UNDERCARD 8 21 9 1 UNDERCARD 9 22 10 1 UNDERCARD 10 23 "Advertising Units" was the number I divided the Advertising spend by to figure out what Main, Co & Under were worth. For a 3-fight card you have 16 Advertising Units. For a 10 fight card you have 23 Advertising Units. Divide the Advertising Value in the summary example & you arrive at $9,000 / 23 = $391.30 Advertising dollars per Advertising Unit. Main event was 10 x $391.30 = $3913.00 Co Main event was 5 x $391.30 = $1956.62 Undercard was 8x $391.30 = $3,130.43 Add those all up & you get $9,000.05 - Close enough right? Wrong. That does work for all of the Summary examples and a couple of the early Super Sleuth ones, but you run into confusion when later examples seem to show $ per hype becoming inconsistent. After initially ignoring those it was these I now knew I needed to solve to have a working formula. Or as someone else had said among those dozens of failed attempt posts, find "the missing information". The entire approach I had used above just wasn't going to work at all, I had only discovered the same dead end everyone else I'd read about had. Hurting My Brain Time! After a cross-examination of those sleuth examples & a lot of beer drinking while I scribbled & hammered away on my calculator (hey it was Friday night) the old grey cells started to begrudgingly cough & splutter into life. I started making comparisons between the sleuth examples to try and understand what piece of information I needed to solve the puzzle, the first clue was going back to the formula for each event type (main, co & undercard) when I looked at what the undercard differences were I spotted why the $ per-hype might be wrong. When I added up the undercard I was getting a far too high value using a variation of the old method. The key to everything was figuring out the Dollar Value per hype point, this was the most difficult & time-consuming part of reverse-engineering Mike's formula & was the key to unlocking everything else, including realising where I and everyone else had been going wrong. Ah Mike, you crafty bastard, with your hiddens & red herrings. After seeing it had to be that the $15 per hype was wrong I had to work out why and then figure out how to get to the right value, that involved more dead-end discoveries, and working out what separated the examples, I constructed a formula & tested it on the first two sleuth examples that had the same hype value but different Advertising amounts, the key had to be there somewhere, a few more attempts using different methods & eventually I spotted a pattern & a number cropped up a few times with different approaches, realising that number could be what I was looking for I reworked my formula & then I tested on all the available examples, now I had something that made sense of those same hype different spends examples, I had a solution which I had worked backwards to find, the reverse-engineering adventure had ended. Stop waffling before I fall asleep...... Still here? Okay here's the goods. Methodoloy - this is for a 3 fight+ card, you can simply omit step 3 if you only have 2 fights on your card & you can omit steps 3 & 2 if you only have a single fight on your card. ***This example assumes you know how to view the Hype & Pop values of Fighters as numerical values, you can find out how to do that elsewhere.*** 1. Main event: Add together the Hype & Pop of each fighter & divide by 2 to get the average, then multiply that x10 to get its Multiplied Hype Value (MHV) 2. Co-Main Event: Add together the Hype & Pop of each Fighter & divide by 2 to get the average, then multiply that x5 to get its MHV 3. Undercard: Add together the Hype & Pop of all the fighters on your undercard & divide by 2 to get the average, no multiplication of this number is required it's at its MHV (x1) already. 4. Total Advertising Spend: Add the MHV's together to get the Total Multiplied Hype Value (TMHV) for the card then multiply that by the $ Per Hype Value to arrive at the total amount of advertising that will be optimal. or, if you want to know how much the Advertising spending is for each event type: 4a. Total Advertising Spend: Multiply each MHV by the $ Per Hype Value - added together, the combined value of these 3 will be your final total advertising spend. WTF dude, what is the $ per hype value? Did you think I was just going to give you that and leave you nothing to do? Nope, but I won't leave you hanging, I did all the hard work and this bit's actually easy now. Examples taken directly from the Advertising Help Page - here it is again for those who hate scrolling back up a wall of text: http://www.mmatycoon.info/index.php/Event_advertising Look at the examples below: Follow the above Methodology steps 1, 2 & 3 as required. Fights 1-10 from left to right. 75v75, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 25v25 = Advertising spend of $17935. 75v75 multiplied by the Main event Bonus is 150*10 = 1500 50v50 multiplied by the Co Main Bonus is 100*5 = 500 Undercard fights added together is 100+100+100+100+100+100+100+50 = 750 Total Multiplied Hype Value (TMHV) for the whole card is 1500+500+750 = 2,750 NOW you can divide this example's Advertising Spend by the TMHV to arrive at the $ per Hype Value. Fights 1-10 from left to right. 50v50, 75v75, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 25v25 = Advertising spend of $16304. 50v50 multiplied by the Main event Bonus is 100*10 = 1000 75v75 multiplied by the Co Main Bonus is 150*5 = 750 Undercard fights added together is 100+100+100+100+100+100+100+50 = 750 Total Multiplied Hype Value (TMHV) for the whole card is 1000+750+750 = 2,500 NOW you can divide this example's Advertising Spend by the TMHV to arrive at the $ per Hype Value** **this will be very close to the value found using the earlier example. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icon73 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Can you do any example the of a card with the hype you would see in syn? I want to see what number you come up with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Slay Posted January 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, Icon73 said: Can you do any example the of a card with the hype you would see in syn? I want to see what number you come up with. Yeah I could do that, have a past card or future card in mind? I would just need total hype & pop for each fighter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daudy Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 So how does this then work with the first 'super sleuth' example listed in that wiki page? For reference: 50v50, 50v50 = Advertising spend of $3000. If you go ((100 * 10) + (100 * 5)) * the magic number from your examples.... you're gonna get a lot more than $3000 EDIT: Mega kudos for giving things a crack though, definitely keen to follow your progress 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Slay Posted January 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 58 minutes ago, Icon73 said: Can you do any example the of a card with the hype you would see in syn? I want to see what number you come up with. SYN_952 Minuar Vs Takahashi (966366) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icon73 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, Skuzbukit said: SYN_952 Minuar Vs Takahashi (966366) I would say based on the number it has put forth it is still not a complete formula. Advertising spend on a PPV like that would be $1,500,000. Lowest I have ever done on a PPV was 150k. And those PPVs were lower lever ones. That being said, amazing work so far and I look forward to its continued progress. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Slay Posted January 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 I was not factoring in PPV, had not actully gotten to the stage of looking at how that affects it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daudy Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 So I had a closer look at some (publicly) shared resources used to calculated optimal ad spend, namely a specific spreadsheet. Interestingly, their 'magic number' was pretty much exactly double yours (although expressed as a fraction, so arguably more precise) and that difference is mostly just to do with how both methodologies go about factoring in the hype of the matchups. Being confused as to how both methods still very poorly covered the 2 fight card super sleuth example I pointed out above, I discussed it with some people and am putting it down to perhaps the wiki not being entirely updated when the formula was allegedly tweaked way back in 2011. This is before me, so I'm just regurgitating what I've been told. P.S. If you don't know about the sheet I'm talking about, you should send a PM to Dinooooooo with the message "Crazy Horse is the most handsome" and he'll link it to you. I think he's changed his manager name to Don Frye but confusingly, is not in the Don Frye Alliance. EDIT: Also I think it goes without saying, but this ad spend figure and also the publicly shared sheet are PPV free figures 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Slay Posted January 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 46 minutes ago, Daudy said: So how does this then work with the first 'super sleuth' example listed in that wiki page? For reference: 50v50, 50v50 = Advertising spend of $3000. If you go ((100 * 10) + (100 * 5)) * the magic number from your examples.... you're gonna get a lot more than $3000 EDIT: Mega kudos for giving things a crack though, definitely keen to follow your progress I must admit I had only looked at testing the 10 fight cards as the org I matchmake tends to run those. But it's a good point you raise, and what I have gotten so far is missing some other unknown variable, the $ per hype has some additional modifier to it I will need to work on., and the "Magic number" I though was fixed is actually scaling. 50v50, 50v50 = Advertising spend of $3000 100*10 = 1000 100*5 = 500 TMHV = 1500 $3,000/1500 = $2 per Hype 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50 = Advertising spend of $7500 100*10 = 1,000 100*5 = 500 300*1 = 300 TMHV = 1800 $7500/1800 = $4.16 per hype 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50 = Advertising spend of $15000. 100*10 = 1,000 100*5 = 500 800*1 = 800 TMHV = 1800 $15000/2300 = $6.52 per hype Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtieBanks Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, Icon73 said: I would say based on the number it has put forth it is still not a complete formula. Advertising spend on a PPV like that would be $1,500,000. Lowest I have ever done on a PPV was 150k. And those PPVs were lower lever ones. That being said, amazing work so far and I look forward to its continued progress. This is a result in what was once described as 'Lazy rich boys being what they are' and before you take it as a slight - it was said about me by the guy who taught me the org business. There was no actual basis that was the correct advertisements to use other than it inflated the event rating. We barely experimented with it - never found the need to find the point of DR on ads etc because orgs were printing cash. Jug did do a bit of experimenting but Jug was a good people person - not a good numbers person. There was a time we were running barely over 100k on ads. https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=731191 that event was like 120k ads https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=741933 This event here for example was about 150k ads. https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=749577 That event was the switch to 500k ads. https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=750691 This was the event after - this is when he figured that PPV hype and event hype were linked. https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=747738 This event was a direct result of throwing 2mil ads into it after I found out that event ratings were directly influenced by advertisements. We wanted to see how big we could get it and put our collective fighers from Blitz orgs into it. This pretty much ended the experimentation from us. There was absolutely no mathematics involved in it - it was literally lets throw our money at it and see what happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtieBanks Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 35 minutes ago, Skuzbukit said: I must admit I had only looked at testing the 10 fight cards as the org I matchmake tends to run those. But it's a good point you raise, and what I have gotten so far is missing some other unknown variable, the $ per hype has some additional modifier to it I will need to work on., and the "Magic number" I though was fixed is actually scaling. 50v50, 50v50 = Advertising spend of $3000 100*10 = 1000 100*5 = 500 TMHV = 1500 $3,000/1500 = $2 per Hype 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50 = Advertising spend of $7500 100*10 = 1,000 100*5 = 500 300*1 = 300 TMHV = 1800 $7500/1800 = $4.16 per hype 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50, 50v50 = Advertising spend of $15000. 100*10 = 1,000 100*5 = 500 800*1 = 800 TMHV = 1800 $15000/2300 = $6.52 per hype That is the spreadsheet which works well for smaller orgs. There was one designed for PPVs but outside of Me and Louie I don't think any copies of it exist anymore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icon73 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 38 minutes ago, ArtieBanks said: This is a result in what was once described as 'Lazy rich boys being what they are' and before you take it as a slight - it was said about me by the guy who taught me the org business. There was no actual basis that was the correct advertisements to use other than it inflated the event rating. We barely experimented with it - never found the need to find the point of DR on ads etc because orgs were printing cash. Jug did do a bit of experimenting but Jug was a good people person - not a good numbers person. There was a time we were running barely over 100k on ads. https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=731191 that event was like 120k ads https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=741933 This event here for example was about 150k ads. https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=749577 That event was the switch to 500k ads. https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=750691 This was the event after - this is when he figured that PPV hype and event hype were linked. https://mmatycoon.com/orgeventpublic.php?EvID=747738 This event was a direct result of throwing 2mil ads into it after I found out that event ratings were directly influenced by advertisements. We wanted to see how big we could get it and put our collective fighers from Blitz orgs into it. This pretty much ended the experimentation from us. There was absolutely no mathematics involved in it - it was literally lets throw our money at it and see what happens. Yeah I know as much, those PPV events line up exactly with what I was describing as a smaller PPV. Those I used 150k ads on. I do realize i can use less. Tbh 300k would probably work well. But idk how it would effect buys in the long term with the lower rated events. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjs2442 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Oh the good ole days for sure, when the fighters were plentiful and the the hype/pop was even more bounding. Like Dinooo said back then it was more about throwing $$$ at it and then counting your spoils and for PPV shows still holds true to a degree however for the smaller orgs, definitely less is more but I haven't spent a fraction of the time Bob has put into it. For me (as I mentioned to him also) the goal should be more on maximizing your ticket sales without over papering to make sure you don't leave money on the table. Always my goal, and yet to perfect it anyways lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Slay Posted January 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 I'm gonna keep working on this puzzle but probably give my grey matter a few days off. I think I am on the right track though, once I can nail something down that scales the $ per hype number. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtieBanks Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 22 hours ago, rjs2442 said: Oh the good ole days for sure, when the fighters were plentiful and the the hype/pop was even more bounding. Like Dinooo said back then it was more about throwing $$$ at it and then counting your spoils and for PPV shows still holds true to a degree however for the smaller orgs, definitely less is more but I haven't spent a fraction of the time Bob has put into it. For me (as I mentioned to him also) the goal should be more on maximizing your ticket sales without over papering to make sure you don't leave money on the table. Always my goal, and yet to perfect it anyways lol Syn has them back now a days - you look at the profits on the past few shows and he has managed to bring it back to money printer status. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mentor Posted February 3, 2023 Report Share Posted February 3, 2023 Keep up the great work Bob. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Slay Posted February 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 Spent some more time on this & think I understand a few things clearer. 1. Value of $ per Hype is different per number of fights on the card. My spreadsheet (link below) has a stab at guessing what these are having taken the difference between the upper values & lower values on 2 fight & 10 fight cards. i.e. between $2 & $6.52173913043478 - to get these numbers I divided the difference between the low & high number by 8 then added that to $2 to get the $ per hype for fight 3 added that to the value for fight 3 to get fight 4 etc. This is just a rough guess since to determine the $ per hype value properly requires a hidden variable. This method does at least bear fruit in getting reasonable results. 2. Hype Multiplier per fight is a different value for each slot on the card. I have some idea of the parameters for "ranges" of fights Fight 1 & 2 multipliers seem to need to add up to 15 Fight 3, 4, 5 need to add up to somewhere around 5.35 Fight 6, 7, 8, 9 , 10 need to add up to somewhere around 2.65 Fights 3-10 need to add up to 8 But values for each specific slot on the card will boil down to experimentation & keeping within the parameters for each range, to tease out what each slot should be set at. This is just going to be a timesink of sorts. I've arrived at some somewhat close results for some fights, others are still off by quite a bit but not crazy far off which is cool. Link - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BDhYK-_lAj8HUM83xn73JwVvIo1eX8DD35i__EaUrCA/edit#gid=929047241 I have gained quite a bit of progress my results are highlighted in yellow, the original spend values from Mike's examples are in red text. Tweaking some values can get me really close to some examples but it then throws others out farther, which is a test of patience, this hints at the $ per Hype values being incorrect since only modifying multiplers is unable to arrive at accurate results, though they are not super far off. These figures do not include any calculations for cards that have PPV on them, that's a can of worms for another year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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