JLP Posted April 18, 2015 Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 Yup, would be nice if today went well Basically all on Machida though... I was just happy when he got bumped out the parlay because he was a lot higher than this until today. I picked Rockwell to win, but it's not a fight that I would gamble on though. I think Rockwell's reach and size will give Machida enough pause that he wont be active enough to win a decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 18, 2015 Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 I picked Rockwell to win, but it's not a fight that I would gamble on though. I think Rockwell's reach and size will give Machida enough pause that he wont be active enough to win a decision. I'm picking ROCKHOLD to win as well. But as you said I wouldn't put an actual bet on this fight, since it's very close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted April 18, 2015 Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 I thought we were talking about Chest Rockwell vs Kenny Machida. They are having a sword fight in your bedroom as we speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted April 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 well that fucked that up then. parlay done on fight one. Gordon looked like shit but he still won the fight imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted April 18, 2015 Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 he definitely won. judges make mma betting harder than it should be. those were two awful fighters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clydebankblitz Posted April 18, 2015 Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 My bet gone in the first fight....early prelims keep killing me. Shamil bad stoppage and now this. I didnt have the internet to watch the fight though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted April 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 he definitely won. judges make mma betting harder than it should be. those were two awful fighters. Gordon's top control was bizarre. When he wanted to, he was totally controlling it but he just kept letting Dempsey back up / not putting his weight on him properly. If Tim Means loses I think I may literally burst into tears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted April 18, 2015 Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 Doctor stoppage, bloody ear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBR Posted April 18, 2015 Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 i picked rockhold to win -- think went 60% him to win with 55% confidence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted April 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2015 Well, it's going a bit shit again. Next two fights will be interesting. I watched VanZant's last fight after seeing we were going with Felice. I don't think much of Felice but VanZant was a mess in that last fight so I'm crossing my fingers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
handgrenaide Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 ''She drops a knee on her face for good measure'' haha Max Holloway...! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted April 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 Well, it's all on the big one then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBR Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 wow total beatdown by rockhold --- i went 4-1 on woc picks Pick Opponent Odds Profit Prediction Confidence Ronaldo Souza Chris Camozzi 1.08 $0.75 http://www.mmatycoon.com/images/eye.gif Felice Herrig Paige VanZant 2.13 $-10.00 http://www.mmatycoon.com/images/eye.gif Ovince St Preux Patrick Cummins 2.08 $10.83 http://www.mmatycoon.com/images/eye.gif Max Holloway Cub Swanson 2.33 $13.26 http://www.mmatycoon.com/images/eye.gif Luke Rockhold Lyoto Machida 1.64 $6.39 the one loss was felice -- i just thought felice would do better in the grappling aspect but she didnt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted April 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 Well, another beatdown for us then. Good thing about this event; the people that picked badly seem to have picked bad on a LOT of the fights, so they've been dumped down the bottom of the rankings and won't get counted next time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rambo Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 Man. This event was brutal for me. Is there any way to check the individual rankings? Since I realized what this thing was, I limited my picks, but I was really confident going into this one that these guys would win. Only one I felt unsure about was Cummins vs OSP. Originally picked OSP but changed it after I watched the Bader fight. Jim Miller Ronaldo Souza Aljamain Sterling Eddie Gordon Corey Anderson Patrick Cummins Cub Swanson Lyoto Machida BRUTAL for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBR Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 Man. This event was brutal for me. Is there any way to check the individual rankings? Since I realized what this thing was, I limited my picks, but I was really confident going into this one that these guys would win. Only one I felt unsure about was Cummins vs OSP. Originally picked OSP but changed it after I watched the Bader fight. Jim Miller Ronaldo Souza Aljamain Sterling Eddie Gordon Corey Anderson Patrick Cummins Cub Swanson Lyoto Machida BRUTAL for me. http://www.mmatycoon.com/woc_rankings.php not sure if updated yet or not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rambo Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 Damn. 20-16 now... and I was 16-7 before the last two events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortfuse122829 Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 Beneil Dariush Jim Miller 1.61 $6.13 Ronaldo Souza Chris Camozzi 1.08 $0.75 Tim Means George Sullivan 1.64 $6.39 Jim Hettes Diego Brandao 2.44 $-10.00 Ovince St Preux Patrick Cummins 2.08 $10.83 Max Holloway Cub Swanson 2.33 $13.26 Luke Rockhold Lyoto Machida 1.64 $6.39 $33.76 Damn Hettes messed it up for me!! I'm 35-7 overall now though so I guess I can't complain too much though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted April 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 I need to make it so that we have guys like you at the top of the ranks rather than people who go on a lucky early run of picks. I've tried doing it a few different ways but every time I do and run the whole script retrospectively, the profits absolutely tank! But yeah, I want someone like you being ranked at #1 with an 80%+ pick percentage after multiple events. I've just bought UFC fight pass and will be scouting each event personally from now on.... I went 3-1 last night but really it was 4-0 (cos I picked Gordon). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtieBanks Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 I was confident in my picks but a lot of the guys had off nights, it happens. think i am at 69% after last nights 4-6 drubbing. for 3 events i was 17-0, the problem is MMA betting is that it is an individual contest controlled by shitty judges and shaky refs, horrible events happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted April 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 I was confident in my picks but a lot of the guys had off nights, it happens. think i am at 69% after last nights 4-6 drubbing. for 3 events i was 17-0, the problem is MMA betting is that it is an individual contest controlled by shitty judges and shaky refs, horrible events happen. Machida, Swanson and Miller were bad picks - I wouldn't call those off nights. Swanson maybe but not the other two. Anderson and Gordon win their fights more often than not. St Preux vs Cummins is too unpredictable, so if that goes against you as a picker I wouldn't call that bad luck because it's one that I would personally leave well alone. Hettes vs Brandao I have added mitigation so that doesn't affect people's value / credits earned at all. I'm only picking up on that post because if people think their bad results are bad luck rather than bad picks, they probably keep making "bad luck" picks... picking 10 fights on a card is just too many, imo, to know enough about all the fighters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rambo Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 Machida, Swanson and Miller were bad picks - I wouldn't call those off nights. Swanson maybe but not the other two. Anderson and Gordon win their fights more often than not. St Preux vs Cummins is too unpredictable, so if that goes against you as a picker I wouldn't call that bad luck because it's one that I would personally leave well alone. Hettes vs Brandao I have added mitigation so that doesn't affect people's value / credits earned at all. I'm only picking up on that post because if people think their bad results are bad luck rather than bad picks, they probably keep making "bad luck" picks... picking 10 fights on a card is just too many, imo, to know enough about all the fighters. I thought Miller was a safeh enough pick before the fight. Jim Miller's a huge step up in competition compared to Daron Cruickshank, Carlos Ferreira, Tony Martin, and Ramsey Nijem. I also thought Cub Swanson was a pretty safe bet too. Cub looked great before his fight with Edgar, and it looked like he just choked it up big time in that one. The last two young guns I picked over a renown vet were Myles Jury and Brandon Thatch - and both of them got mugged by Cerrone and Benson. Oh well, I'll bounce back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtieBanks Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 Machida, Swanson and Miller were bad picks - I wouldn't call those off nights. Swanson maybe but not the other two. Anderson and Gordon win their fights more often than not. St Preux vs Cummins is too unpredictable, so if that goes against you as a picker I wouldn't call that bad luck because it's one that I would personally leave well alone. Hettes vs Brandao I have added mitigation so that doesn't affect people's value / credits earned at all. I'm only picking up on that post because if people think their bad results are bad luck rather than bad picks, they probably keep making "bad luck" picks... picking 10 fights on a card is just too many, imo, to know enough about all the fighters. I just have one thing to pick up on and need clarification. Machida, Miller, Swanson and OSP were all bad picks as in that i shouldn't have picked for either? Just to check because Machida and Swanson were both 75% on the WOC prediction. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted April 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 I just have one thing to pick up on and need clarification. Machida, Miller, Swanson and OSP were all bad picks as in that i shouldn't have picked for either? Just to check because Machida and Swanson were both 75% on the WOC prediction. I mean it for different reasons really. We've had bad picks that we've won on (like Al Iaqinta vs Jorge Masvidal / Jordan Mein vs Thiago Alves) but generally I mean just looking back in hindsight and going "yeah, that was not a good pick, I misjudged that". - For OSP I wouldn't pick personally. I wouldn't call Cummins a bad pick though, just a really risky one. Yes, there is an element of luck here for sure but it's a risk that perhaps didn't need to be taken. I don't know though - maybe it's the risky fights were we make our money.... I would have to analyse that in more detail. - Swanson I dunno, you probably can't call it a bad pick. I just wouldn't want to put that one down to "bad luck". It was just an underestimation of an up and coming fighter. Something that will happen a lot but something that shouldn't just be dismissed as luck... Hopefully it's a fight that you can remember next time there's an established guy against a younger guy with physical advantages and / or who's on a good run. - Miller, I didn't know enough about this fight so I can't tell you any more than I saw a lot of people who'd done their research picking Dariush to win. You guys aren't meant to look at other people's opinions, so I'm not saying you should know what other people were saying... I'm saying that if people who had analysed the fight were picking Dariush, Miller was probably a bad pick. - Machida, I thought was a bad pick personally because he was at a serious physical disadvantage. Rockhold is massive and Machida is a soft 185lber. Also, I took a refresher look at Machida's record and he hasn't done anything of note for 2 years and he's getting old. Kinda like the Dariush fight - one fighter's on an upward trajectory and the other's at best past their plateau. When that's the case I think it just needs a lot more thinking time / analysing before making a pick. I could see the crowd were picking Machida from weeks ago, which made me really think about it in a lot of detail, do some more analysis and I ended up actually picking Rockhold in a fight that I initially planned to leave well alone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted April 19, 2015 Report Share Posted April 19, 2015 My rules for MMA betting were pretty simple and actually cover a few of those fights; 1. If you worry a guy is old or shopworn, stay very far away from him. (miller and machida) 2. Youth and size trumps skill and experience most of the time. (rockhold) 3. Favor volume strikers over counter punchers (Holloway/swanson) 4. Athleticism and speed kills (osp) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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