Wisdom of Crowds - your predictions please!

[MMATycoon]

Damn, I lost my parlay

Annoying that cos I didn't scout that fight at all and was just going on other people's opinions and records to throw it in there. All the ones I picked as decisions went to decisions :S

[JLP]

i rarely bet parleys. when i did it was 3 fights at a maximum. Any more than that and you are tempting fate a little too much.

[MMATycoon]

i just had a good feeling all those 3 would go to a decision and they did. i just threw in kaufman vs davis cos i wasn't really thinking about it and both have had a load of decisions... i honestly haven't ever paid any attention to either of their fights apart from when they get whupped by Rhonda. 40+% of fights end in decision though so I think that has a lot of legs as a parlay backbone.

[JLP]

i just had a good feeling all those 3 would go to a decision and they did. i just threw in kaufman vs davis cos i wasn't really thinking about it and both have had a load of decisions... i honestly haven't ever paid any attention to either of their fights apart from when they get whupped by Rhonda. 40+% of fights end in decision though so I think that has a lot of legs as a parlay backbone.

lol, you are betting how you tell us not to bet in WOC. Betting on fighters you dont know well.

[PBR]

I went 3-2 this time, sucks ass -- CB and Kaufman cost me -- I knew CB was a slight gamble but thought Kaufman was a good bet

[MMATycoon]

lol, you are betting how you tell us not to bet in WOC. Betting on fighters you dont know well.

Indeedy. Won't do it again

 

I'll be honest, I just thought it would be cool to post a bet over +1000 odds on my first day on CapperTek, cos if it came off I would look like a boss

[ArtieBanks]

i went 2-0

 

Bisping and Johnson on a parley (i got about evens on it)

 

I was gonna take Rampage over Maldonado but after seeing what Tosen said, i re-watched a few of Jackson's bellator fights and decided against betting the fight at all.

 

I am gonna give the next event a miss I think, I usually like betting Tavares and Hioki looks like a solid bet but apart from that there are a lot of pick ems. Edgar vs Faber looks like a good event to get some decent money made on though.

[MMATycoon]

I bet there is a lot of value on the next card. I'm gunna do a lot of fight watching over the next couple of weeks!

[LanceTempleton]

I think i have hit 3 out of 4 fights in 4 fight parlays like 10 times in a row now...

[MMATycoon]

working on this page at the moment, for anyone that's interested;

 

http://mmabetting.tips/mma_fight_stats.php

[Guest]

What could be cool if we could see our credit balance history, how much we won and lost.

[shortfuse122829]

How do you cash out your picks for VIP? I mean I don't really need the VIP days right now but I have plenty for when I do which is nice.

 

*Mike edited out fight opinions for upcoming fights*

[MMATycoon]

OK guys, please don't discuss your picks in here - that goes against the concept. We don't want group think kicking in and everyone influencing eachother.

 

As for cashing out - we'll leave it a few more events to see if the numbers seem fair then we'll open that up.

[shortfuse122829]

OK guys, please don't discuss your picks in here - that goes against the concept. We don't want group think kicking in and everyone influencing eachother.

 

As for cashing out - we'll leave it a few more events to see if the numbers seem fair then we'll open that up.

 

Don't you edit out my posts!!! I'll say whatever I want!

[JLP]

I really dont like the bets on Ellis and Noke. Noke is past his prime and was never really that good in his prime, he got out-wrestled by Cote in his last fight. Webb is going to win that one fairly easily as long as he doesnt get popped cleanly. No real value in that line for betting the dog. Ellis is just not a good fighter. Lost 4 of her last 5. Rawlings isnt good either and the value of the line is decent, but thats the kind of fight you throw a small bet at.

[JLP]

Noke got a hometown decision. He lost every round.

[ArtieBanks]

i didn't make any predictions this time, i did however take James Vick to win, his height and style just seemed to be a good fit.

 

Just checked the WOC there, damn it is gonna be bleeding red after some of those losses inc the biggest bet being a complete flop. There was no value, nor was there any real wisdom of who would win that one.

[shortfuse122829]

Damn I should've done this event after all...

I also had Vick Dinooo. Only fights I was leaning towards picking were...

Rawlings

Vick

Alvey

Whitaker

Miocic

so I would've ended up solid on this card but I felt like a few could've gone the other way too so just avoided it

[MMATycoon]

Basically one user's predictions (Zark Penduko) fucked it up, or we'd have made a decent profit. Until his picks we were gunna put 15 units on James Vick at +170 and there wasn't a big bet on Ellis. It's a shame but it's something I need to try and re-work in the equations. I keep asking people not to pick every fight on the card for this very reason but some people just don't listen.... That one person not listening cost us basically our reputation as a predictor.

 

I personally made a +42 unit profit on CapperTek, which put me top of all the MMA tipsters on the weekend.

[JLP]

Todays bets look very good.

[MMATycoon]

They were OK. I hated the Luke Barnatt pick... shouldn't have touched that fight with a barge pole either way.

 

I personally hit +46.67 units on CapperTek. If it wasn't for John Tuck fighting totally different to every other UFC fight, I would have got over +100 units

[JLP]

They were OK. I hated the Luke Barnatt pick... shouldn't have touched that fight with a barge pole either way.

 

I personally hit +46.67 units on CapperTek. If it wasn't for John Tuck fighting totally different to every other UFC fight, I would have got over +100 units

I saw the Lima and Munoz fights the same way, you are betting on a shitty chin to shatter on a superior fighter. If I was betting RL money I would have stayed away from both those fights. Munoz being fired up in his final fight in front of his people made all the difference. I picked that one wrong, but couldnt be happier about getting a fight wrong.

[Rambo]

I bet on Lima... sigh. Got the Nover fight wrong, and I thought I picked Jon Tuck... but I guess not. Got the other 5 right though. I think it should of been 6/8, but at this point I'll accept 5/8.

[MMATycoon]

Lima fight was totally different. He had no advantage over Li anywhere. Munoz had a very clear advantage over Barnatt in the wrestling, control, probably gas tank.... I don't know. I didn't break down the fight at all really because I didn't think it was a good pick either way.

 

This is the problem with WOC, I'm finding... It really is impossible to know how a lot of fights are gunna go unless you watch a LOT of fight tape. I think we can make money with WOC but not as much as someone can who is willing to spend 30 hours per event breaking things down. I just have to assume that most of the tipsters till now are going on their gut instinct rather than breaking the fights down one by one by watching tape... It's either that or I'm just much better at it than most people. I watched about 7 hours of fight tape on Diego Lima and Li Jingliang and that was as close to a dead cert as I can imagine. I'm actually annoyed I didn't make more money off it... if I'd been doing tipstering for longer, I am certain I would have made a fairly large unit bet on the TKO at +750.

 

This was my breakdown of that fight.

 

 

 

In my opinion, Dhiego Lima is not a UFC calibre fighter and if it wasn’t for one sloppy takedown by Tim Williams, he never would have been. I’ve just watched all of Lima’s fights in the UFC, working back to the original fight on TUF against Williams. Williams totally dominated the first round on the ground, which Lima just gave away without a fight. Williams was then winning the second when he dived in for a sloppy takedown, very nearly got it but Lima just got out, scooted round and got a RNC. In his second fight on TUF he got knocked down after 10 seconds but got a very slick armbar straight off it.

 

So we then move on to his proper UFC fights. He’s been sparked out within a round twice and won an unimpressive decision against a last minute replacement who moved up from 155lbs just to take a fight in the UFC.

I don’t like being a douche about it because he does seem like a nice guy but I just don’t think the guy does anything that well and he has some massive problems. He’s got a really, really bad chin and he has a maximum of 7 minutes of gas per fight. Those are the main things. On top of that, he doesn’t hit very hard, though he has some decent leg kicks, he couldn’t finish his last minute kick boxer opponent from some really dominant positions on the ground, he has poor defensive grappling in that he just accepts being in bad positions and it appears and doesn’t have that “hell no, I’m not losing” sort of mentality.

 

Jingliang Li does nothing spectacularly but is a pretty solid, well rounded and improving fighter. His one (I think) elite attribute is his chin. That won’t be tested in this fight. He also has a really solid gas tank. So that’s basically two massive red flags for Lima to worry about. Though it’s hard to tell for sure, as he’s faught two guys with bricks for heads so far in the UFC, I think Jingliang Li does hit pretty hard. It certainly looks it on a basic visual level but KO power is more of an intangible than that and sometimes guys look like they hit hard when they don’t and vice versa. All I can go on is that both David Michaud and Nordine Taleb looked busted up pretty bad at the end of both their fights with Li.

So, to quickly get to the point, I do heavily favour a TKO for Jingliang Li.

 

But let’s look at the potential problems. Jingliang Li’s takedown defense is not great. Both his UFC opponents so far have taken him down against the cage and with straight double legs. That’s a worry. However, they are both much better wrestlers that Dhiego Lima, who has less than impressive wrestling. If it does go to the mat, Lima’s BJJ is weird…. he’s landed two really slick submissions on TUF, then his top game looked pretty poor against the late replacement mentioned earlier. He has the ground equivalent of a punchers chance, I guess, but Jingliang Li is a brown belt in BJJ and he reversed / escaped against both Michaud and Taleb who both have good top games. I think Jingliang Li really should have plenty to cope with Lima, especially given that Lima is likely to gas out a lot quicker than he is, so there’s a limited timeframe when he’s going to be dangerous.

Throw in the fact that Lima was a late replacement around a month before fight time and that the fight is in Asia and that’s another two negatives for Lima. Honestly, I have no clue how the line got set where it is but it fascinates me and I’d love to know http://mmagame.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif I’m guessing it’s more based on statistics than watching fight tape, that’s for sure.

 

That's probably my weakest breakdown in terms of what actually happened. My breakdowns of Magny vs Lim and Matthews vs Vick have basically been exactly what happened in the fight, right down to the potential dangers for my pick. http://mmagame.net/

 

I kinda did these two events as a bit of an experiment to see how good I could be at it. As far as I know, the best single event return any other tipster has ever got was +33 units... that's the best I've seen anywhere anyway. I did +42 and +45 units and very nearly did +110 on the second event.

 

I had one guy buy my picks for the last event on CapperTek and he made $200. I personally made about $130. Unfortunately I only have an account at bet365 who don't offer all the parlay stuff

 

I'm leaving it for the next event cos it's too time consuming, so I can try and finish these fight engine updates. I'm basically doing the tipstering instead of playing PS4 but it does still eat into MMA Tycoon brain space, so I am conscious that I can't give it too much time.

 

But back to Li Jingliang.... He's better than Diego Lima absolutely everywhere, including on the ground. We'll never see Lima in the UFC again and I think Li Jingliang may well make a decent career in the UFC for quite a long time. His two matchups before this just hadn't really suited him, nullified him and made him look worse than he actually is.

[JLP]

Pretty obvious no one is watching tape to make their WOC picks. Namujanis and Hall are the two top money bets this week. Both fighters are very overrated and sizable favorites. Any serious gambler who saw that on the WOC record isnt going to buy the service.