MMATycoon Posted May 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2015 I haven't bet either of those ones.... I think they're both talented but they like to find ways to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted May 24, 2015 Report Share Posted May 24, 2015 You can never put your money on Hall. He is too passive and his fight IQ is horrible. He is a better athlete and more skilled fighter than Natal, but he just placidly muddled his way to a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtieBanks Posted May 24, 2015 Report Share Posted May 24, 2015 i went 4-1 tonight, Travis let the side down, thankfully as a rule i tend not to be on heavyweight fights; too much shit that can go wrong. Â Cerrone, Dodson, Kim and Jose done the job though, not any real money to be made on them, i bet 20 and got back 55 quid, so i can't complain too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted May 24, 2015 Report Share Posted May 24, 2015 You should make it so our confidence affects the amount of the bet the system places for us when we make our picks. 100% confidence is one unit and it scales down the same percentage of your confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted May 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2015 This event illustrated a massive problem with the system imo. I thought basically all the favourites would win but that the odds are too wide. So I put the predictions on, pretty much all of them came right, but there was nothing in the system to assess whether I thought there was value in the lines or not. Â I came up with a new system that I think will produce better results, whilst lying in bed last night, unable to get to sleep... I just have to figure out if I can still use the existing data or if we need to start from scratch. Pretty sure we can still use the existing data. Â Personally I did a +7.8 unit profit and came second on CapperTek, behind only the much maligned Luca Fury, who finally made an event profit A couple of people on there are conveniently not grading their picks for Anthony Johnson, which is pretty funny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 24, 2015 Report Share Posted May 24, 2015 This event illustrated a massive problem with the system imo. I thought basically all the favourites would win but that the odds are too wide. So I put the predictions on, pretty much all of them came right, but there was nothing in the system to assess whether I thought there was value in the lines or not. Â I came up with a new system that I think will produce better results, whilst lying in bed last night, unable to get to sleep... I just have to figure out if I can still use the existing data or if we need to start from scratch. Pretty sure we can still use the existing data. Â Personally I did a +7.8 unit profit and came second on CapperTek, behind only the much maligned Luca Fury, who finally made an event profit A couple of people on there are conveniently not grading their picks for Anthony Johnson, which is pretty funny Did you see the site devoted to Fury? The one that lists a pile of his personal issues? He has some real haters on Twitter. Sounds like he lies about his results and "works the system" to show better results then he tends to get. Also, how can people not grade a pick? That's horse shit. If you make a pick and get it wrong, it's wrong. They for sure would be counting it if AJ won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted May 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2015 The picks auto-grade as losses after a week. Yeah I've seen the audit of Luca Fury. Basically he's actually made a loss over his whole tipstering career, or at least he had done when the audit was done. He's made some shocking picks lately but we get to see them all on CapperTek now, so fair play to him for at least doing that and not hiding. Â There's a guy at the top of the leaderboard for MMA now who parlayed two things together that you aren't allowed to parlay together, cos the two bets are interlinked (Cormier to win and that fight to go over 2.5 rounds, parlayed at +302). You only got about +250 for a Cormier decision, so he's giving himself +302 for cormier decision or finish after R2.5. Â Then he's also given himself odds of -110 for the fight to go over 2.5 rounds when odds for the fight to start R3 was -170. Â Bit of a minefield this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rambo Posted May 31, 2015 Report Share Posted May 31, 2015 Turnin' it around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itakebrides Posted June 4, 2015 Report Share Posted June 4, 2015 yeah still no where confident enough to place really money on the tips yet.Seem like the way i be betting big on the biggest suggestion bet of all the fights(basic the nap) has be loseing far to often for my likeing .Is there any way of getting the nap bet better in upcoming events because that what you should be focusing on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted June 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2015 I dunno what "the nap" means :S Â I'm changing the equations at the moment to that totally different way of calculating things, that I mentioned before the last event. Thankfully my instincts appear to have been right and the new equation works much better. Basically it means we're a lot less likely to place bets on favourites and we place a lot less bets in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itakebrides Posted June 4, 2015 Report Share Posted June 4, 2015 I dunno what "the nap" means :S Wow taught you would know that betting term my bad .Basic it would be your best bet for a event .Where the wiki defintion which explains it bets Nap indicates this is the tipster's most confident selection of the day or event. Â Â You should really focus on betting just one fight per event .There a old gambling saying you "can beat a race but you cant beat the races" . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted June 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2015 Wow taught you would know that betting term my bad .Basic it would be your best bet for a event .Where the wiki defintion which explains it bets Nap indicates this is the tipster's most confident selection of the day or event. Â Â You should really focus on betting just one fight per event .There a old gambling saying you "can beat a race but you cant beat the races" . Â Â OK cool cool. I don't particularly come from a betting background, so I wasn't aware of the term. Â However, in terms of only betting one fight per card, I totally disagree with that. Sometimes there is a hell of a lot of value on a card and sometimes there's absolutely none. Setting a hard and fast rule just isn't a good idea, in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted June 4, 2015 Report Share Posted June 4, 2015 I've never hear the term "nap" used that way either. Amount of bets should be on a card by card basis. I dont think there are many fights this weekend that look worth betting, but I dont look at the lines anymore to try and give WOC a hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted June 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 5, 2015 I reckon this weekend would have been really good for value, so it's a shame I haven't had time to check it out. Reason I say that - you've got a lot of even-ish fights with people who have had a fair few fights in the UFC. Those fights where you have a lot of tape to watch and the fighters likely aren't improving that much between fights, I reckon are where the best value's at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted June 5, 2015 Report Share Posted June 5, 2015 I made my picks and looked at the odds afterwards. Two of my picks are about even money so I think those would be good bets. The other one is around the -180's, I would have left that one alone at that price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted June 7, 2015 Report Share Posted June 7, 2015 I made my picks and looked at the odds afterwards. Two of my picks are about even money so I think those would be good bets. The other one is around the -180's, I would have left that one alone at that price. the two I got right were the near even money fights; Rivera and Jordan. The one I got wrong was the favorite, Tavares. When I made the pick I figured Tavares as a slight favorite, maybe -130 or -140. He is a way better fighter but his chin and resilience are shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted June 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2015 Honestly, I don't thnk it's a massive deal if people look at odds, as long as they are independent thinkers afterwards. I mean, if people wanted look at odds then see a fight they think might be good value, do some research, confirm their initial thoughts then pick the underdog, I would be all for that. Really the "don't look at odds" thing is to stop people just going around picking favourites, cos that's a sure fire way for the system to lose money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLP Posted June 7, 2015 Report Share Posted June 7, 2015 Honestly, I don't thnk it's a massive deal if people look at odds, as long as they are independent thinkers afterwards. I mean, if people wanted look at odds then see a fight they think might be good value, do some research, confirm their initial thoughts then pick the underdog, I would be all for that. Really the "don't look at odds" thing is to stop people just going around picking favourites, cos that's a sure fire way for the system to lose money. good to know. the directions on the WOC page made it seem verboten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 13, 2015 Report Share Posted June 13, 2015 98% for Escudero to beat Dober? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rambo Posted June 14, 2015 Report Share Posted June 14, 2015 98% for Escudero to beat Dober? Â I picked him and Werdum but I picked against Pendred... and I picked Gilbert. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted June 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 15, 2015 Im really struggling to make the WOC thing work at the moment. I think I can do it but it's damn hard when people just pick the favourite all the time and flood the system with crap, cos they're not doing it properly. Honestly, I think we need more people involved too. Â FYI, I have moved from mmabetting.tips to betmma.tips because the owner of mmabettingtips.com basically asked me to, to avoid confusion. Â Anyway, as a separate thing I'm going to add a feature for you guys to basically run your own handicapping service (using the 1 to 11 unit handicapping method) and push that on betmma.tips. That's pretty much a no-lose situation. If 100 or so people do that, some of you are gunna be really good at it. There are only about 30 proper MMA tipsters out there, so we should become the go-to site for betting on MMA, whether it's with WOC or with the individual tipsters directory. Â At first we'll just get a few events in the books to log people's progress, then we'll start allowing you to charge for your tips. You guys can keep 80% or whatever and I'll take 20%. Basically what CapperTek should do if it was run properly. Â Now, keep this just to this thread but basically CapperTek is a total fraud. I have been deleted from there for letting admin know that I know that. Basically the site admin run a load of fake accounts and edit bets on them to inflate their profits, then make money by selling those accounts' picks. I'm going to be releasing a big blog about it on the .tips site and I'm going to use the release of that blog to try and push people to use our site instead... Hopefully it will prove to be good advertising for both the betting site and tycoon. Â Again though, please do keep that just to this thread for now. I'm not 100% ready to go with that site, to release the blog etc. Â Anyway, I'll post up the link where you guys can set up your handicapping service in the next few days Hopefully it will make people take it more seriously and as I'm now basically saying it's fine to look at odds, we might see a bit of an improvement in the WOC system too, whereby people might make a few more picks there based on good value. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted June 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2015 Link to the blog about Cappertek Fraud, which I finished in the last couple of days. Made good progress on the betmma.tips site now, so I'm ready to start making that more public and trying to get some more eyeballs on the site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 15, 2015 Report Share Posted July 15, 2015 i went 9-1 on picks at the weekend, some of which were against crowd and favourite picks, i can't see where it says how much I should have won? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMATycoon Posted July 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2015 if you click on my profile your stats are in there. good effort going 9-1 but try and predict less fights next time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonzasco Posted July 17, 2015 Report Share Posted July 17, 2015 Poor results and Mike convinced me to stop pickin the full card. Went 5-0 last event 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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