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Wisdom of Crowds - your predictions please!


MMATycoon

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You've finally convinced me to vote on less fights. I can usually hold up a 60-65 percentage voting for the entire cards (and even non-UFC cards) but I realize that this is a different thing than the usual "pick ems"

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  • 2 months later...

Does anyone know if the UFC's new drug testing policies get used in Brazil? Or is it still anything goes down there?

I HOPE it's the same drug policies, for fairness and consistency, but based on the fact that Anderson Silva has asked UFC to match him up against Nick Diaz in a fight in Brazil, it looks like Silva at least believes anything goes.

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They do. The differences come because of the quality/skill of the labs used to carry out the tests.

 

God knows which version of Belfort is going to show up though.

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They do. The differences come because of the quality/skill of the labs used to carry out the tests.

 

God knows which version of Belfort is going to show up though.

thats the fight im thinking of. juiced up belfort will probably KO Hendo before he gasses and gives up.

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  • 1 month later...

I don't understand WOC not accepting fight picks... I only pick fights that I "know" what the result will be, so I always select 100% wins, and 100% confidence.

 

 

http://mmatycoon.com/woc_event.php?Event=54

 

 

I selected Edgar, Tony, Evan, Crusher, and Gonzaga.

 

 

But when I check the results, it says only Y (your pick) was Evan vs Lauzon...

 

 

I officially declare nonsense.

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The algorithm doesn't count 100%/100% picks because they're deemed to be 'frivalous' and are usually the work of trolls. If you're really that sure, pick 95%/95% and then they will be counted.

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The algorithm doesn't count 100%/100% picks because they're deemed to be 'frivalous' and are usually the work of trolls. If you're really that sure, pick 95%/95% and then they will be counted.

 

I wouldn't pick or bet on a fight if I didn't think or "know" one dude was gonna beat up the other lol. 100/100 works on a lot of fights though, why do some of them accept 100/100 picks and some of them not?

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Nobody KNOWS the result of a fight. To say that is nonsense. You were 100% percent certain that if Gonzaga fought Erokhin 100 times, that Gonzaga would win all 100 fights? Or that Ferguson beats Barbosa 100 out of 100 fights? You put 100% confidence and prediction on Jim Miller vs Michael Chiesa and Chris Weidman over Luke Rockhold. You've been 100% certain and 100% wrong on 39% of your picks, so that's no use to the system at all. You had to be more sure about some of those fights than others and if not, like I say, that's no use to the system at all because you're meant to effectively be setting your own betting line.

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Nobody KNOWS the result of a fight. To say that is nonsense. You were 100% percent certain that if Gonzaga fought Erokhin 100 times, that Gonzaga would win all 100 fights? Or that Ferguson beats Barbosa 100 out of 100 fights? You put 100% confidence and prediction on Jim Miller vs Michael Chiesa and Chris Weidman over Luke Rockhold. You've been 100% certain and 100% wrong on 39% of your picks, so that's no use to the system at all. You had to be more sure about some of those fights than others and if not, like I say, that's no use to the system at all because you're meant to effectively be setting your own betting line.

 

They're not ever going to fight 100 times so that seems silly to me. They were fighting that one time, and I knew Gonzaga would get a win, and he did. Am I always right? No. But if I wasn't 100% confident a fighter would win, I wouldn't bet on him. I pick fighters on WoC at the rate that I bet on fights irl. I still don't think it should reject any of my picks.

 

that 39% would probably be more like 30% if it didn't secretly reject my picks :P

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They're not ever going to fight 100 times so that seems silly to me. They were fighting that one time, and I knew Gonzaga would get a win, and he did. Am I always right? No. But if I wasn't 100% confident a fighter would win, I wouldn't bet on him. I pick fighters on WoC at the rate that I bet on fights irl. I still don't think it should reject any of my picks.

 

that 39% would probably be more like 30% if it didn't secretly reject my picks :P

 

You didn't know he would win, you thought he would win. That's the point. Being overly confident is a terrible trait for the system or for betting in general. I don't believe for one second you had exactly the same level of confidence in everyone one of your picks. If you do, you aren't breaking down the fights at all because there are many possibilities within any matchup.

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They're not ever going to fight 100 times so that seems silly to me. They were fighting that one time, and I knew Gonzaga would get a win, and he did. Am I always right? No. But if I wasn't 100% confident a fighter would win, I wouldn't bet on him. I pick fighters on WoC at the rate that I bet on fights irl. I still don't think it should reject any of my picks.

 

that 39% would probably be more like 30% if it didn't secretly reject my picks :P

 

There's too many variables for anything to be 100% in any sport.

 

Gonzaga might have walked over to Erokhin, attempted a headkick, slipped, tore his knee ligaments and lost the fight by injury TKO. The chance of it happening is less than 1%, but it's not 0% like you're implying.

 

You were 100% that flat footed, slow paced Chris Weidman would beat a dynamic Southpaw body/leg kicker like Rockhold? How'd that work out for you?

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There's too many variables for anything to be 100% in any sport.

 

Gonzaga might have walked over to Erokhin, attempted a headkick, slipped, tore his knee ligaments and lost the fight by injury TKO. The chance of it happening is less than 1%, but it's not 0% like you're implying.

 

You were 100% that flat footed, slow paced Chris Weidman would beat a dynamic Southpaw body/leg kicker like Rockhold? How'd that work out for you?

 

 

Overall on the event I won money. Feelin' like a winner.

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