Wisdom of Crowds - your predictions please!

[MMATycoon]

I don't like your rule 4 but I agree with the other 3. Plenty of athletic guys get tooled when they are outmatched on the ground.

 

edit; for Rule 1, you picked Gray Maynard a couple of events ago

[JLP]

I don't like your rule 4 but I agree with the other 3. Plenty of athletic guys get tooled when they are outmatched on the ground.

 

edit; for Rule 1, you picked Gray Maynard a couple of events ago

lol, i did. That guy he fought is really bad and wasnt known for power punches. gray's chin is just so far gone i guess. I was also thinking they were throwing gray a softball to get an easy win.

 

The first question id ask myself when i went to bet a fight was always "Is one fighter a significantly better athlete then the other?" Speed kills. I think the faster fighter won in every fight that you mentioned as a bad bet.

[shortfuse122829]

I picked OVP because Cummins striking game is really at early stages and OVP is an elite caliber athlete IMO. There was the risk that Cummins would get the TD's and really control him from the top but I felt that OVP would be able to KO him. I also picked OVP over Shogun

 

I was a bit worried about the Holloway prediction because Swanson was on a good run before Frankie Edgar fight but I also really like Max's athleticsm, I think his game is pretty well-rounded and with his length and use of the jab I thought he would be able to keep Swanson in a range that was good for him. (I didn't watch the fights last night though so dunno what really happened in this fight)

 

I picked Daruish because I think he's a really good up and coming fighter & believe that Jim Miller is really past his prime. He hadn't fought in like 9 months and Daruish has done a pretty good job at controlling good wrestlers in the past. He really rag dolled Cruishank who despite being known as a striker has a pretty good wrestling background & usually has relatively good TDD. I just thought he'd over-power Miller.

 

Machida vs. Rockhold I thought was a mismatch, I honestly might say Rockhold is the best fighter not currently wearing a UFC title

 

Souza was an easy pick once that fight got changed, I thought that would've been a competitive fight before the replacement

 

Hettes was the lone loss for me and I picked him because Brandao usually blows his load early & I thought as long as he survived the early portion of that fight his skill-set would be able to beat a gassed out Diego.

 

 

I didn't pick the Herring vs. VanZant fight because I never saw the latter girl fight. I knew that she had a lot of hype behind her but I wasn't going to pick a fight that I didn't really know anything about 1 of the competitors

[ArtieBanks]

 

I mean it for different reasons really. We've had bad picks that we've won on (like Al Iaqinta vs Jorge Masvidal / Jordan Mein vs Thiago Alves) but generally I mean just looking back in hindsight and going "yeah, that was not a good pick, I misjudged that".

 

- For OSP I wouldn't pick personally. I wouldn't call Cummins a bad pick though, just a really risky one. Yes, there is an element of luck here for sure but it's a risk that perhaps didn't need to be taken. I don't know though - maybe it's the risky fights were we make our money.... I would have to analyse that in more detail.

- Swanson I dunno, you probably can't call it a bad pick. I just wouldn't want to put that one down to "bad luck". It was just an underestimation of an up and coming fighter. Something that will happen a lot but something that shouldn't just be dismissed as luck... Hopefully it's a fight that you can remember next time there's an established guy against a younger guy with physical advantages and / or who's on a good run.

- Miller, I didn't know enough about this fight so I can't tell you any more than I saw a lot of people who'd done their research picking Dariush to win. You guys aren't meant to look at other people's opinions, so I'm not saying you should know what other people were saying... I'm saying that if people who had analysed the fight were picking Dariush, Miller was probably a bad pick.

- Machida, I thought was a bad pick personally because he was at a serious physical disadvantage. Rockhold is massive and Machida is a soft 185lber. Also, I took a refresher look at Machida's record and he hasn't done anything of note for 2 years and he's getting old. Kinda like the Dariush fight - one fighter's on an upward trajectory and the other's at best past their plateau. When that's the case I think it just needs a lot more thinking time / analysing before making a pick. I could see the crowd were picking Machida from weeks ago, which made me really think about it in a lot of detail, do some more analysis and I ended up actually picking Rockhold in a fight that I initially planned to leave well alone.

 

I did that with Miles Jury vs Donald Cerrone, fuck me that went wrong, picked the young up and comer and he got his arse skelped by Donald. I have a really hard time ever betting against Donald though. So i picked Cub, he comes from the same camp and a high caliber fighter.

 

Miller was fighting in his hometown, he has been a hype train derailer through-out his career and has some really slick BJJ. My analysis on it was that if the fight went to the ground Miller would sub him and use his experience. It appears that Dariush is the real deal though, and beating Miller validated that.

 

Machida fight was a gut feeling to be honest, i thought Machida would do what he had done in the past. Machida has fought bigger guys than Rockhold in the past and knocked them out spectacularly. Beating Gegard 50-45 isn't nothing, and losing to Weidman isn't exactly horrible and it was a competitive fight. I also have Rockhold eating a Belfort kick etched in my memory, Machida is a lot craftier with his kicks, i thought Machida would add him too the highlight reel. It was a close fight on paper imo, i just favored him, so i put him down.

 

The OSP thing was the same as shortfuse, i felt Patrick wasn't ready for the UFC never mind a guy like OSP. OSP didn't look great in the fight though, but imo a 50% OSP would beat an 100% Patrick. Shortfuse hit the nail on the head with the Diego vs Hettis fight.

 

Funny enough the other two fights you mentioned, i am fairly certain i picked Alves and Al, either that or i bet on them one of the two. I spend more hours scouting tycoon fights than UFC fights to be fair, but most of the guys on that card i had watched previously or heard of in forums as being great up and comers in the scene. I'll avoid using WOC now though, i don't fancy putting in the sort of time that you have been Mike in order to come to some sort of formula to who will win.

[MMATycoon]

I didn't pick the Herring vs. VanZant fight because I never saw the latter girl fight. I knew that she had a lot of hype behind her but I wasn't going to pick a fight that I didn't really know anything about 1 of the competitors

 

If you had seen her only UFC fight you wouldn't have picked her - she looked incredibly sloppy.

[MMATycoon]

Funny enough the other two fights you mentioned, i am fairly certain i picked Alves and Al, either that or i bet on them one of the two. I spend more hours scouting tycoon fights than UFC fights to be fair, but most of the guys on that card i had watched previously or heard of in forums as being great up and comers in the scene. I'll avoid using WOC now though, i don't fancy putting in the sort of time that you have been Mike in order to come to some sort of formula to who will win.

 

The last thing I want people to do is stop picking. Once people get below a certain level their predictions don't count anyway, until they predict enough right again to get counted again.... So there's no problem at all with posting gut feelings, just maybe with a little forethought into whether you know enough about both guys... If you don't don't bet those fights. I don't pick every event.

[shortfuse122829]

 

The last thing I want people to do is stop picking. Once people get below a certain level their predictions don't count anyway, until they predict enough right again to get counted again.... So there's no problem at all with posting gut feelings, just maybe with a little forethought into whether you know enough about both guys... If you don't don't bet those fights. I don't pick every event.

 

I don't pick all the events either. Sometimes I intend to and forget until the day of the fight and by then I don't think you can make predictions. Other times like the Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop event, they are just filled w/ so many fights that I don't know anything about 1 or both of the guys that I tend to just avoid them rather than make picks just to make picks

[handgrenaide]

Yeah that's my problem I pick every fight, I need to stick to what I know and only pick the fights im sure of.

[ArtieBanks]

 

The last thing I want people to do is stop picking. Once people get below a certain level their predictions don't count anyway, until they predict enough right again to get counted again.... So there's no problem at all with posting gut feelings, just maybe with a little forethought into whether you know enough about both guys... If you don't don't bet those fights. I don't pick every event.

 

I have one suggestion which might help out on the red/green side of things. Most tipsters that i know tend to give something like a bankers double usually giving a rate of evens. Then a treble, a quad and then a bonkers bet (usually contains a couple of guys near evens in iffy fights).

[MMATycoon]

 

I have one suggestion which might help out on the red/green side of things. Most tipsters that i know tend to give something like a bankers double usually giving a rate of evens. Then a treble, a quad and then a bonkers bet (usually contains a couple of guys near evens in iffy fights).

I would like to do more parlays but I think there's so much intuition involved that it's gunna be a tricky one to figure out.

I just did some more stats and since we started;

 

Favourites vs Underdogs (on our picks)

Favourite Wins: 90 (58%)

Underdog Wins: 66 (42%)

 

We Picked Favourite: 116 (74%) of which 74 won (64%)

We Picked Underdog: 40 (26%) of which 22 won (55%)

 

I would be very surprised if that's representative of MMA over a longer period of time. If anyone can be bothered to hunt down some stats produced by anyone else, that'd be cool. Probably an easy find on google, I'm just playing games at the moment

 

edit, OK, found the stats for 2014 as a whole, according to MMA Junkie

"Betting favorites went 336-154 over the course of the year."

 

Fav: 68.5%

Dog: 31.5%

 

So yeah, by the looks of things we've had a massive run of upsets. I'm not entirely sure if that will have helped or hindered us. I would say it's definitively a big part of our bad run of late but it has also definitively provided the majority of our profits.

[Manta]

With the last 4 UFC events, i doubled the money I had in the bank. And yes, I have been using the WOC to place my bets.Not one time I have let my personnal beliefs dictate my bets.

 

Mike I'm planning on PM'ing you about my method if it helps the project... I wanted to test it a few more weeks to make sure it was working in the long term, but i'll share it in a couple of days as soon as i get the time to write you the message (it's gonna be a long read!!)

 

Here are my results sor far (i started on UFC 185)

 

UFC 185 : Bank : 300$, risked = 90$, result = -51,30$ (3 bets placed)

UFN march 21st : Bank : 248.70$, risked = 100$, result = +125$ (2 bets placed)

UFN april 4th : Bank : 373,70$, risked = 186$, result = +75,78$ (4 bets placed)

UFN april 11th : Bank : 449,48$, risked = 90$, result = +74,25$ (2 bets placed)

UFC FOX april 18th : Bank : 523.73$, risked = 365$, result = +63.08$ (6 bets placed)

 

Current Bank : 586,81$

 

 

 

 

 

[MMATycoon]

Just made a mitigation page to show the mitigation I have in place already. I would like suggestions for fights that could benefit from mitigation in the past. I haven't seen all the events but I can look back at them on UFC fight pass.

[LanceTempleton]

I picked Rockhold with 100% certainty and also bet a ton of money on him IRL. I really felt he would manhandle Machida.

[ArtieBanks]

Just made a mitigation page to show the mitigation I have in place already. I would like suggestions for fights that could benefit from mitigation in the past. I haven't seen all the events but I can look back at them on UFC fight pass.

 

Just do it like the presidential race or something like that, anything with 60% or under to someone put it as too close to call. Hopefully it will lead to some green instead of red.

[Guest]

I picked Rockhold with 100% certainty and also bet a ton of money on him IRL. I really felt he would manhandle Machida.

 

That's my papa! Is that why you sent me that $5 gift card for The Keg?

[JLP]

WOC recommends a big play on Clements.

Bet on Chris Clements vs Nordine Taleb (@3.23) 72% 13.25 29.49 0.00 $53.00 $0.00

I picked Clements to win in the pick'em league, but I didnt pick him in WOC and I wouldn't bet on him either. That's a scary bet to go all in on. Neither guy is very good and both are old.

If I were still betting, I would have stayed away from this card unless to bet the big favorite prospects on the undercard. Laprise, Almeida and Aubin Mercier. I would also like Campbell over Makdessi if the return were a little better.

[MMATycoon]

I think Taleb probably wins a decision but it's a big potential return on what's probably more like a pickem fight.

[PureGlass]

I've been terrible with my predictions.

 

In 2013 I won an MMA forum prediction league, where I was predicting entire cards correctly, this year I'm close to the bottom of the league & that just happens to coincide with Wisdom Of The Crowds.

 

I haven't been watching MMA as much though, I hadn't missed a card since about 2004/2005, recently though, the past year or so, with the horribly watered down UFC cards, I've lost significant interest.

[MMATycoon]

I've been terrible with my predictions.

 

In 2013 I won an MMA forum prediction league, where I was predicting entire cards correctly, this year I'm close to the bottom of the league & that just happens to coincide with Wisdom Of The Crowds.

 

I haven't been watching MMA as much though, I hadn't missed a card since about 2004/2005, recently though, the past year or so, with the horribly watered down UFC cards, I've lost significant interest.

 

yeah, that's some good going! Not unretrievable though; just pick fights you really feel like you know something about.

[JLP]

I think Taleb probably wins a decision but it's a big potential return on what's probably more like a pickem fight.

I agree with everything you said, but this kind of fight is a one or two units bet. I'll be rooting for Clements so WOC looks good.

[MMATycoon]

I've started putting up picks on one of my old sites that I used to promote this site;

MMA Betting Blog

 

This was my Clements vs Taleb breakdown;

 

"Chris Clements vs Nordine Taleb
Basically I think Nordine Taleb will not win inside the distance. You can get that at -171. However, you get better odds if you place the two bets separately on Chris Clements straight up (+226) and Nordine Taleb to win the decision (+171). I’m edging towards a Taleb Decision but I just don’t see the guy as a finisher. He has a good jab, perhaps some power but he does not commit to a finish. When he takes people down he’s more than happy to just sit in half guard and drop ponderous elbows. Chris Clements is a bulldoze fowards, winging looping punches striker with a lot of power. He telegraphs his shots but still lands. He does land a lot of kicks, which I think could work against Taleb. The guy’s tough as nails. He got tooled by Matt Riddle but Riddle is basically a polar opposite of Taleb in terms of aggression."

[MMATycoon]

I agree with everything you said, but this kind of fight is a one or two units bet. I'll be rooting for Clements so WOC looks good.

I agree on the units thing for this particular fight. However, I think big units on fights like this is probably where we make the money longer term.... Win some / lose some.

 

Anyway, I'm just hoping it goes to a decision now. On my personal CapperTek that I started before this event, I have a +1053 parlay on 4 decision and Bec Rawlings, including this fight.

 

Davis vs Kaufman (-240), Barberena vs Laprice (-150), Clements vs Taleb (+105), Daly vs Marcos (-185) all go to decision, plus Bec Rawlings beats Lisa Ellis (-184) @ +1053 Rawlings vs Ellis is on the 9th May, the rest are tomorrow.

[MMATycoon]

One frustrating thing about that Clements pick - I made a change to the equation that I knew made it better but it utterly decimated all past event profits, basically cutting it from +280 to +100, so I left it for now to have a think about what to do... I don't think the system would have made that pick with the altered equation.... I knew that but left it because like I say, I thought it was a live dog bet. Anyway, whatever.... Hopefully the parlay comes off. If it does we'll still make an event profit. I'm not sure on Aubin-Mercier to be honest. I don't think he's as good as people think.

[JLP]

Parlay looks pretty strong at this point. I think the only danger is rampage. I see that fight as being pretty close. Rampage hasnt been a good fighter in a long time. I think the guy is shot and I wont be surprised to see Maldonado take the last two rounds from him.

 

I like Aubin-Mercier a lot. Good athlete, still young and already is pretty good in all phases of MMA. Seems to have a decent chin/recovery combo. He got dropped tonight and popped right back up and didnt seem to have any after effects. Laprise got exposed a bit tonight though. He struggled with an inferior opponent.

[MMATycoon]

Yeah I was shitting it with Laprice in the 3rd: I put an 11 unit bet on him at -296. No idea why he gassed so much... seems like it was just cos the other guy was bigger so maybe he needs to go to 155.