Bad Luck (Learning Speed)

[UniConor]

 

The chance of rolling 150-150-150-150-150 is the same as rolling 150-150-150-150-149 or 1-63-59-142-111

 

To be exact the probability of getting all 150 is 150^7 (there are 7 hiddens right haha). Thats a big number

 

edit: that is also the probability of rolling any unique combination

 

edit again: 150^7=1708593750000000 so you have a 1 in 1708593750000000 chance of rolling all 150s

Well I'm feeling lucky today baby

[catako]

I never had a slow learner, maybe that's because I check the box "fast learner".

Never had a fighter under 5 learning speed.

Maybe I sacrificed a box out of 3 but for me seemed a good gamble as I want to have mediocre to good fighters to get experince and after that I will probably risc to go for better fighters.

[skintchicken]

i know this is off topic, but its similar and i didn't think it deserved a whole new thread. what do you guys think of fighters who cut easily? are they worth keeping?

[Scooby]

i know this is off topic, but its similar and i didn't think it deserved a whole new thread. what do you guys think of fighters who cut easily? are they worth keeping?

 

Speaking in general or if it shows it on TOTT

[Bwang]

one of my guys showed "cuts easy". he's never lost to cuts in 14 fights. and he's a K1 guy.

[skintchicken]

i mean a guy who has "cuts easily" in his TOTT. he's already lost once to cuts and he's fairly new so i am wondering if i am wasting resources or if i should stick with him.

[UniConor]

I had a couple "cuts easily" guys and they're all winners

[Scooby]

i mean a guy who has "cuts easily" in his TOTT. he's already lost once to cuts and he's fairly new so i am wondering if i am wasting resources or if i should stick with him.

 

depends upon his punches and strength, if they are high then he doesnt have ko power, however if they are low its a possibility he could still have it

[Madness]

You guys are looking at it from a 1 on 1 perspective. Yes, you have the same chance of rolling a 1 as you do a 150. But, there are 10 hiddens. That means you can have anywhere between 10 and 1500 total points. You could also factor the points you get from checking the boxes, but I will ignore that for now. Statistically speaking you are much more likely to have a total of 750 points in your hiddens than either of the extremes. Imagine it like a pair of dice. There is only 1 possible way to roll a 2 or 12, but there are 6 ways to roll a 7.

 

1. Impossible
2. 1+1
3. 1+2, 2+1
4. 1+3, 3+1, 2+2
5. 1+4, 4+1, 2+3, 3+2
6. 1+5, 5+1, 2+4, 4+2, 3+3
7. 1+6, 6+1, 2+5, 5+2, 3+4, 4+3
8. 2+6. 6+2, 3+5, 5+3, 4+4
9. 3+6, 6+3, 4+5, 5+4
10. 4+6, 6+4, 5+5
11. 5+6, 6+5
12. 6+6

Hiddens are the same way. All these rolls are made before you see anything. Revealing one stat like learning speed does not change that. Chances are your average total will be closer to the middle range than it will the outer extremes. Not saying all 150's is impossible, but it is insanely unlikely. Now instead of 2 dice imagine it is 10x150 sided dice. That is how hiddens are determined. The key is total points. I am not commenting on a single skill. Getting 150 on chin does not change the likelihood of also getting it on heart, but it is an indicator other hiddens may be lacking such as experience, popularity, or maybe even one you care about like KO power. Or you could win the lottery and rock them all no matter how unlikely.

[gwad12345]

You guys are looking at it from a 1 on 1 perspective. Yes, you have the same chance of rolling a 1 as you do a 150. But, there are 10 hiddens. That means you can have anywhere between 10 and 1500 total points. You could also factor the points you get from checking the boxes, but I will ignore that for now. Statistically speaking you are much more likely to have a total of 750 points in your hiddens than either of the extremes. Imagine it like a pair of dice. There is only 1 possible way to roll a 2 or 12, but there are 6 ways to roll a 7.

 

1. Impossible
2. 1+1
3. 1+2, 2+1
4. 1+3, 3+1, 2+2
5. 1+4, 4+1, 2+3, 3+2
6. 1+5, 5+1, 2+4, 4+2, 3+3
7. 1+6, 6+1, 2+5, 5+2, 3+4, 4+3
8. 2+6. 6+2, 3+5, 5+3, 4+4
9. 3+6, 6+3, 4+5, 5+4
10. 4+6, 6+4, 5+5
11. 5+6, 6+5
12. 6+6

Hiddens are the same way. All these rolls are made before you see anything. Revealing one stat like learning speed does not change that. Chances are your average total will be closer to the middle range than it will the outer extremes. Not saying all 150's is impossible, but it is insanely unlikely. Now instead of 2 dice imagine it is 10x150 sided dice. That is how hiddens are determined. The key is total points. I am not commenting on a single skill. Getting 150 on chin does not change the likelihood of also getting it on heart, but it is an indicator other hiddens may be lacking such as experience, popularity, or maybe even one you care about like KO power. Or you could win the lottery and rock them all no matter how unlikely.

 

No it is not.

 

Nothing to see here folks just more #gamblersfallacy...

[bjornmma1]

 

No it is not.

 

Nothing to see here folks just more #gamblersfallacy...

 

Some people just don't seem to get it. Aah well, at least we both know how odds really work

[skull]

Seems like the only time i get a really fast learner is when i make a 25 yr old :-(

[bjornmma1]

Seems like the only time i get a really fast learner is when i make a 25 yr old :-(

 

lol poor you! I

[Madness]

 

No it is not.

 

Nothing to see here folks just more #gamblersfallacy...

That is not a case of gambler's fallacy. You interpreted it wrong. I never said a high score on learning speed means a low score on something else as a way to balance things out. Instead I showed you a specific example to show that when all skills are added together the entire total is more likely to be closer to the middle than the outer extremes. It is simple math. Not a fallacy. Anyone who has ever taken a class on probability would realize that. As with the dice I showed you every possible combination you could roll. You will notice you are 6 times more likely to roll a 7 than you are a 12. That isn't a fallacy. It is a fact. Since it is only 2 die revealing a 1 would not suddenly mean the other would be a 6. It has no effect on the result of the second roll. But, without looking at the rolls as if they were hidden you would be much wiser to bet on the total being a 7 than any other number.

 

With hiddens it is the same thing. They are hidden when they are rolled. Revealing one does not suddenly change what the others are. But, if you are a betting man you would be much wiser to bet the total was more near the center than the extremes, because there are far more total combinations of rolls that add up to the center values. There is only one possible combination of skills that add up to 1500 total points. 10 combinations that add up to 1499. 44 combinations that add up to 748. There are literally tens of thousands of combinations that add up to exactly 750. So, which total do you think is more likely considering all skills are hidden?

[Wolf]

[gwad12345]

That is not a case of gambler's fallacy. You interpreted it wrong. I never said a high score on learning speed means a low score on something else as a way to balance things out. Instead I showed you a specific example to show that when all skills are added together the entire total is more likely to be closer to the middle than the outer extremes. It is simple math. Not a fallacy. Anyone who has ever taken a class on probability would realize that. As with the dice I showed you every possible combination you could roll. You will notice you are 6 times more likely to roll a 7 than you are a 12. That isn't a fallacy. It is a fact. Since it is only 2 die revealing a 1 would not suddenly mean the other would be a 6. It has no effect on the result of the second roll. But, without looking at the rolls as if they were hidden you would be much wiser to bet on the total being a 7 than any other number.

 

With hiddens it is the same thing. They are hidden when they are rolled. Revealing one does not suddenly change what the others are. But, if you are a betting man you would be much wiser to bet the total was more near the center than the extremes, because there are far more total combinations of rolls that add up to the center values. There is only one possible combination of skills that add up to 1500 total points. 10 combinations that add up to 1499. 44 combinations that add up to 748. There are literally tens of thousands of combinations that add up to exactly 750. So, which total do you think is more likely considering all skills are hidden?

 

Did you take that last paragraph directly from Wikipedia's page on gamblers fallacy?

 

I understand what you are saying completely. It is still false. It is just more gamblers fallacy. Gamblers fallacy would not be considered a cognitive bias if it was easy to grasp.

 

Let me give you a more simple example. You flip a coin 4 times. There is only one combination that will give you 4 tails and the probability of that happening is 6.525%. Now lets say your first 3 flips are tails . What is the probability your last flip will be tails? We already know that getting 4 tails in a row is 6.525%. Does that mean that flipping the last coin tails is 6.525%? No. Every single flip is an independent random outcome. The probability of every single flip is 50-50. Period.

 

I can't really explain this any better than I have without giving you an Introduction to Stats course now I'm really just beating a dead horse.

[Madness]

That is not the same thing at all. A coin only has 2 sides, and you already saw the 1st 4 flips. Obviously if you are making a guess on the 5th flip it is a 50% chance. Now, if someone else flipped it 5 times without showing you any of the results ( hiddens ) determining the probability of your total score would be completely different though 2 sides does not have the same diversity of 150. If I knew 9 of my hiddens and was making a guess as to the last one anything I guess would have a 1 in 150 chance, but we all know you will never know all your hiddens. It isn't a fallacy to say that you are tens of thousands of times more likely to score a 755 total in all skills than you are a 1500. It is a fact. You roll 10x150 sided dice and you will get a centrist result hundreds of thousands of times more often than not. There have been more than 600k fighters in this game, so some are bound to be exceptions. But, the vast majority prove the rule. The rolls are made before any are revealed, so learning one does not change the rest. They are just exposing the results.

 

You keep claiming an individual 1 at a time prediction basis. I am saying the total unknown points among everything. It is like we are having different conversations. You don't roll 1 dice at a time while making guesses each time. You roll all 10.

[Scooby]

Lol i totally didnt mean for this thread to become a mathematics competition...

[bjornmma1]

Lol i totally didnt mean for this thread to become a mathematics competition...

 

It's not a competition. The winners have already been decided, but the loser just hasn't realised it yet

[Steel]

Did you mean to be responsible for the dullest thread ever Scoobs?

[Madness]

There is a 1 out of 150 chance chin is 150. Same for KO. Same for learning and all the others. There is a 1 out of 5766503910000000000000 chance they all will be. You are arguing 1 individual skill at a time while I am more realistically looking at the total. Your way only matters if all you care about is 2 hiddens.

 

Edit: had too many 0's

[GBK16]

After 4 pages of this

 

http://i.gyazo.com/f8b7840a57a281add1a493b258b6057a.png

[gwad12345]

That is not the same thing at all. A coin only has 2 sides, and you already saw the 1st 4 flips. Obviously if you are making a guess on the 5th flip it is a 50% chance. Now, if someone else flipped it 5 times without showing you any of the results ( hiddens ) determining the probability of your total score would be completely different though 2 sides does not have the same diversity of 150. If I knew 9 of my hiddens and was making a guess as to the last one anything I guess would have a 1 in 150 chance, but we all know you will never know all your hiddens. It isn't a fallacy to say that you are tens of thousands of times more likely to score a 755 total in all skills than you are a 1500. It is a fact. You roll 10x150 sided dice and you will get a centrist result hundreds of thousands of times more often than not. There have been more than 600k fighters in this game, so some are bound to be exceptions. But, the vast majority prove the rule. The rolls are made before any are revealed, so learning one does not change the rest. They are just exposing the results.

 

You keep claiming an individual 1 at a time prediction basis. I am saying the total unknown points among everything. It is like we are having different conversations. You don't roll 1 dice at a time while making guesses each time. You roll all 10.

 

I have tried to explain all of the mathematical principles to you, there is only so much I can say. I can tell you have some vague idea on the law of large numbers but have absolutely no idea when it applies. I encourage you to test your principle at a casino and report to us how much money you lose.

[Kronix]

fellas fellas... both your calculations are horribly wrong... you forget to factor in the hiddens boost (+30 * 3) Oki, continue the fight.

[Scooby]

Did you mean to be responsible for the dullest thread ever Scoobs?

 

Im shocked it got so many pages

 

After 4 pages of this

 

http://i.gyazo.com/f8b7840a57a281add1a493b258b6057a.png

 

My thoughts exactly

 

fellas fellas... both your calculations are horribly wrong... you forget to factor in the hiddens boost (+30 * 3) Oki, continue the fight.

 

I thought of this yesterday but decided it wasnt worth it to start a battle